When do we turn the clocks forward
The Free Lunch Is Over
A Fundamental Turn Toward Concurrency in Software
By Herb Sutter
The biggest sea change in software development since the OO revolution is knocking at the door, and its name is Concurrency.
This article appeared in Dr. Dobb's Journal. 30(3), March 2005. A much briefer version under the title "The Concurrency Revolution" appeared in C/C++ Users Journal. 23(2), February 2005 .
Update note: The CPU trends graph last updated August 2009 to include current data and show the trend continues as predicted. The rest of this article including all text is still original as first posted here in December 2004.
Your free lunch will soon be over. What can you do about it? What are you doing about it?
The major processor manufacturers and architectures, from Intel and AMD to Sparc and PowerPC, have run out of room with most of their traditional approaches to boosting CPU performance. Instead of driving clock speeds and straight-line instruction throughput ever higher, they are instead turning en masse to hyperthreading and multicore architectures. Both of these features are already available on chips today; in particular, multicore is available on current PowerPC and Sparc IV processors, and is coming in 2005 from Intel and AMD. Indeed, the big theme of the 2004 In-Stat/MDR Fall Processor Forum was multicore devices, as many companies showed new or updated multicore processors. Looking back, it’s not much of a stretch to call 2004 the year of multicore.
And that puts us at a fundamental turning point in software development, at least for the next few years and for applications targeting general-purpose desktop computers and low-end servers (which happens to account for the vast bulk of the dollar value of software sold today). In this article, I’ll describe the changing face of hardware, why it suddenly does matter to software, and how specifically the concurrency revolution matters to you and is going to change the way you will likely be writing software in the future.
Arguably, the free lunch has already been over for a year or two, only we’re just now noticing.
The Free Performance Lunch
There’s an interesting phenomenon that’s known as “Andy giveth, and Bill taketh away.” No matter how fast processors
get, software consistently finds new ways to eat up the extra speed. Make a CPU ten times as fast, and software will usually find ten times as much to do (or, in some cases, will feel at liberty to do it ten times less efficiently). Most classes of applications have enjoyed free and regular performance gains for several decades, even without releasing new versions or doing anything special, because the CPU manufacturers (primarily) and memory and disk manufacturers (secondarily) have reliably enabled ever-newer and ever-faster mainstream systems. Clock speed isn’t the only measure of performance, or even necessarily a good one, but it’s an instructive one: We’re used to seeing 500MHz CPUs give way to 1GHz CPUs give way to 2GHz CPUs, and so on. Today we’re in the 3GHz range on mainstream computers.
The key question is: When will it end? After all, Moore’s Law predicts exponential growth, and clearly exponential growth can’t continue forever before we reach hard physical limits; light isn’t getting any faster. The growth must eventually slow down and even end. (Caveat: Yes, Moore’s Law applies principally to transistor densities, but the same kind of exponential growth has occurred in related areas such as clock speeds. There’s even faster growth in other spaces, most notably the data storage explosion, but that important trend belongs in a different article.)
If you’re a software developer, chances are that you have already been riding the “free lunch” wave of desktop computer performance. Is your application’s performance borderline for some local operations? “Not to worry,” the conventional (if suspect) wisdom goes; “tomorrow’s processors will have even more throughput, and anyway today’s applications are increasingly throttled by factors other than CPU throughput and memory speed (e.g. they’re often I/O-bound, network-bound, database-bound).” Right?
Right enough, in the past. But dead wrong for the foreseeable future.
The good news is that processors are going to continue to become more powerful. The bad news is that, at least in the short term, the growth will come mostly in directions that do not take most current applications along for their customary free ride.
Over the past 30 years, CPU designers have achieved performance gains in three main areas, the first two of which focus on straight-line execution flow:Source: www.gotw.ca