How betting on football works
A betting strategy can be broken down into two main parts, Method and Type.
The Method can also be broken down into two parts; first how do you make your bets?
Are you going to use an online bookmaker or a high street bookmaker? Are you going to use many bookmakers or just one or two?
Secondly how you quantify your risk, or to put it another way what point system will you employ?
Most people don’t pay much attention to their method, but paying attention to how you put your bets on will help you keep track of your profit and loss and that in turn will make you a better gambler.
Type is the kind of bet or bets you place, for example; are you going to go for
odds on. low risk, high stake, low payout selections every week, or are you going to go for long odds high risk, high payouts? Will you back just one or two selections each week or will you back four or five? Will you back them as singles, and accumulators or singles doubles and trebles?
Again; as with method, most people don’t pay attention to what type of bet they’re putting on over the course of a season and will employ many different types from week to week, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but as with your method it’s best to keep an eye on your type of betting, adjusting Type is often the way out of a losing streak.
We at Love Football Gambling prefer the multi-account online method, that is to say we bet through many different online accounts, we don’t rule out the high street altogether, but by and large you can get as many, if not more of a range of bets online and 99% of the time online prices will be better.
As far as point systems go we use the double liability 1 for 1 system. So in other words 100 points = £100, but £100 is twice what we’re prepared to lose on any one bet, so our maximum bet at any one time would be £50
Note: the point system is flexible and can change throughout the season, if it’s going well then the liability can change so that you’re betting more, or vice versa.
The benefits of the multi-account Method, is that it puts you in the best position to take advantage of the best price on any particular event. It also means that you’re more likely to spot ‘arb bets’ LINK (to betting terms) and best of all the more online accounts you have, the more free bets and promotional codes you’ll be exposed to.
The variation of types of bet are endless, there are of course many ways you can place a bet and a variety of ways in which you can combine those ways, but we’re just going to concentrate on a few of them here.
First of all the two main types of betting are Fixed Odds Betting and Spread Betting. first let’s look at Fixed Odds
Fixed Odds Type One: Long term-safe singles
Fixed Odds Type Two: Short term-safe singles
These two types; as the names suggest, both rely on selecting mainly singles. the long term singles type is whereby you choose a couple of teams and then stick with them for a season or till serious loss of form.
Fixed Odds Type One: Long term-safe singles
For example Glasgow Celtic and Glasgow Rangers win a very high percentage of their games, therefore putting £10 on each of these teams for each of their games, unless they’re playing each other.
This strategy will see you yield a small profit over the course of a season, for instance Celtic who won the Scottish Premier League (SPL) in the 2007-2008 season, played 38 games winning 28 drawing 5 and losing 5.
Two of the games they lost were against Rangers, so therefore using the guide above you wouldn’t have bet on those games. Meaning out of 35 games you would have won 28 times or 80% of your games.
The average odds of these games is going to be very low say around 1/4 meaning for the £280 staked on the 28 games your return would be £400 a profit of £120.
For the eight games you lost that’s £80, so your total return for a £360 outlay on Celtic over the 2007-08 SPL season would be £400 a return of just over 11%.
This may not sound much, but how many banks will give you 11% interest on your savings over a year? Admittedly investing in Celtic is riskier than investing in a bank but you’d have to go back a long way to find a season where investing in Celtic didn’t get you some kind of positive return.
For Glasgow Rangers you would have had similar returns, they won one less than Celtic, losing one more, but of course two of those losses were against Celtic (they play each other four times in the Scottish Premier League).
Considering those two losses were right at the end of the season, you might have even decided to cut and run from the ‘Rangers fund’ at that point, Rangers would have been disheartened as Celtic were on red hot form and Rangers would have felt the title slipping away.
The point is over a season these two teams will rarely let you down over the course of the season making them good long term gambling investments.
Fixed Odds Type Two: Short term-safe singles
As the name suggests, this type is whereby you choose safe singles on a week to week basis, paying more attention to runs of good form.
For example you might see that Reading are playing particularly well at home, but not so well away and that when it comes to mid to lower table teams, they’re really blowing their opponents away.
In that scenario you would obviously pay close attention to their home games, backing them till their form turned for the worse.
The disadvantage of this type over the long term-safe single type is that form can end at any time so you’re more likely to get burnt.
The advantage of backing teams that have just hit a run of form; especially if they’re only doing it at home, or even better away, is that the bookies are sometimes slow on the uptake and you end up getting a good positive odds bet, when really you should be getting evens or less.
Fixed Odds Type three: (mixed type) short term-safe singles/doubles
Fixed Odds Type four: (mixed type) random singles/doubles
These two types both take more money to back but will yield a higher return, but of course the risk increases.
Fixed Odds Type three: Mixed Type (short term-safe singles/doubles)
This type as the name suggests is whereby you make single bets at the same time combining them to make doubles .
The simplest example being picking two selections, say Everton and MK Dons, first you’d cover them as singles, hopefully the way the odds are set means that if one loses and one wins, then depending on which you either make a small profit or cover your bet.
Then you combine the two into a double bet, thus giving you an even greater profit if they both win, this is obviously a good tactic if you believe you have two very strong picks for that week.
As a general rule (though always remember rules are made to be broken!) you would put half the stake of the single on the double.
Below is a classic scenario,
Everton are on red hot form and are playing a newly promoted Sheffield United who are struggling, MK Dons you believe is a good spot, they’ve drawn their last two games 2-2 and 3-3, but they’ve just got their star defender back so the odds are favourable, so you decide to go £15.50 on Everton at 10/11 £10 on MK Dons at 13/10 and £5 on Everton & MK Dons.
The disadvantage of this is if you’re ‘banker ’ loses, i.e. Everton get turned over by Sheffield United but MK Dons still win, you lose money, whereas if you had backed them as singles you would still have come out on top.
However should your banker win, let’s pretend it’s an early Saturday 12 noon kick off, then you’d be able to sit back and relax, knowing that you were definitely up, if the Dons lose,
then hey, you’re up £4.50, but if they win you’ve made an extra £16.50 from the double bet.
This type does not have to be restricted to just two selections, you might find in a week as we often do, that out of the 46 or so in the English Football League and the 21 or so games in the Scottish Football League, you may discover 5 or 6 strong singles, which you decide to combine in different ways.
Maybe you’ll make three doubles from the six selections or maybe you’ll make more, but of course the more you make, the more you risk something going wrong.
Fixed Odds Type four: (mixed type) random singles/doubles
This type relies more on good spots than the others, as the random element is trying to find good value bets or even upsets and then pairing them up with a strong single.
For example Bolton Wanderers are on a hot streak and are playing a struggling Portsmouth who’ve just had David James injured and are without four first teamers. But Scunthorpe who are topping their league had a bit of a wobble last week, they’re playing Ipswich who are at the bottom of the table but they’ve got a new manager and had a convincing draw last week putting an end to a seven match losing streak.
So in this scenario you would pair up Bolton and Ipswich and wouldn’t be hoping too much to get odds of around 4/7 on Bolton and 3/1 on Ipswich.
The final Fixed Odds types we’re going to look at are:
Fixed Odds Type Five: (mixed type) Short term-safe singles/accumulators.
Fixed Odds Type Six: (mixed type) Random singles/accumulators.
Fixed Odds Type Five: (mixed type) Short term-safe singles/accumulators
This type is whereby you pick as many ‘safe’ singles as you can and then mix them up into selections of doubles, trebles. four-folds, whatever you can basically, though if they really are ‘safe’ singles then the chances are that on any given week you won’t have more than two or three.
Fixed Odds Type Six: (mixed type) Random singles/accumulators
As with the Random singles/doubles, you’re relying much more on good spots and upsets, you may find that you have as many as ten selections, which you combine in a number of ways, though this type is the likeliest of the six to go horribly wrong, if it does go right, you’re gonna be in the money!
Remember 1: the more selections you have on a single bet, the less your stake should be, especially if you’re going for lots of different multi-selection bets.
Remember 2: the more multi-selection bets you have, the less singles will be covered and the more you’re going towards a complete accumulator type, which while still a valid type, will tend to win far, far less than the other more conservative types.
Spread betting is a completely different type of betting to the types we’ve explained above, all the previous types depend on a definite outcome on a certain event.
Spread betting is where you’re betting on a range of outcomes, it is more fully explained in the Love Football Gambling betting guide. so for now let’s just look at ways spread betting can be employed.
Spread Type One: Long Term Spread .
The Long Term Spread is whereby you bet on a series of events over the course of days, weeks or even the whole season.
So for example Manchester United have won the Premiership for the last three years with 90,87 and 85 points, so a spread betting bookmaker like sportingindex.com might put the points spread to win the English Premiership at 85-88.
So you may believe that it’s going to be a really competitive season and thus low scoring so you may go £100 a point below 85, another way to express this would be to sell at 85. Or if you thought that one of the top four would run away with it you might go £100 a point above or buy at 88.
Unlike fixed odds betting it doesn’t matter who wins as long as they win by more or less than the spread, depending on which way you’ve gone. If you sell £100 at 85 and the final points total is 80, then you would win £500 or 5 x your stake, however if you’d bought £100 at 88, you would have lost £800 or 8 x your stake.
If the final points total is 91 then you would win if you’d bought £100 at 88 then you’d win 3 x your stake £300 but if you’d sold £100 at 85 you would have lost 6 x your stake £600.
Spread Type Two: Short Term Spread
The Short Term Spread, as the name suggests is taken over a short time, like the 90 minutes of a game of football or till the firs goal is scored or the first yellow card is handed out, there really are a myriad of different types of Short Term Spread.
For example yellow cards =10 points red cards=30 points.
Barcelona are playing Liverpool in the Champions League, both teams like to play football and both teams are low in bookings and sendings off for the season, so the bookie puts the spread at 20-30.
In this instance you might agree with the bookmaker and go £10 a point below by selling at 20 or you might see that Barcelona are playing a full back who’s been injured up till now and has a reputation as a tough tackler, so you go £10 a point above and buy at 30.
If it is a dirty game and there are bookings galore you’re quids in if you went above, and licking your wounds if you went below. The thing to remember with this tactic is that you can often pull out of the bet if it starts going wrong, therefore cutting your losses.
The Guaranteed Type
The guaranteed type! I hear you splutter, how can you possibly guarantee winning? Well it’s simple you only ever bet on arbs, arb betting is whereby you find a game in which three different bookies are offering wildly different prices on the three outcomes.
So for example: Rochdale are playing Darlington.
Bwin.com are offering 9/5 on Rochdale, 19/10 on the draw and 2/1 on Darlington
Bet365.com are offering 6/4 on Rochdale 7/2 on the draw and 9/4 on Darlington
http://www.lovefootballgambling.com/?page_id=209 are giving evens on Rochdale 9/4 the draw and 3/1 Darlington.
Note that they all believe that Rochdale are the favourites, where they differ is by how much, bwin.com clearly reckon the draw or they have taken a lot of money on the draw so are trying to tempt bets on Rochdale or Darlington (preferably Darlington).
Bet365.com also believe Rochdale are the slightly bigger favourites and don’t believe in a draw or haven’t taken much money on it.
At Betfair.com you’re betting against other people and so therefore have managed to get a whopping 3/1 on Darlington.
So you would put £10 on Rochdale with bwin.com, then you would put £6 on the draw at bet365.com and finally you would take the 3/1 you were getting at betfair.com. bringing your total outlay to £22.
Now if the favourites Rochdale win then you get back £28 a profit of £6, if it’s a you get back £33 a profit of £11 and if Darlington win you win back £24 a profit of £2.
Of course in arb bet you’re still rooting for a particular result, in this case the draw, however it doesn’t really matter as whatever happens you net a profit and of course you would hope that you would be able to put on much more than the original £22 as you simply couldn’t lose.
The disadvantage of this type is that these bets don’t come along for often, or in fact hang around for long when they do happen, odds are changing all the time, so you tend to have to be quick, and the amount of research to find bets like this can be colossal.
Of course it helps if you have taken the multi-account approach and if you let us do the research for you and check the LFG tips of the week every week to make sure that you’re not missing out on any potential arb bet gems.
If you want to find out more about how fixed odds or spread betting works, go to the Spread Betting Explained page .
or click on the links below to read more of the LFG Betting Guide.Source: www.lovefootballgambling.com